Awards predictions

There’s been much discussion about what expanding the number of Best Picture nominations from five to ten has done to the integrity of the awards show.  Now the cynic in me knows well enough that expanding the field was in direct response to the unfathomable snub of “The Dark Knight” in the previous year; nonetheless, I actually like the 10 nominations.  Sure, there’s always going to be films that don’t get in, but without the expanded field, films such as “Up”, “District 9”, and the underseen “A Serious Man” would have never had a chance.  Here’s how I think the night will go down.  Don’t worry, I’ll only stick to the top-tier nominations.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR = Matt Damon in “Invictus”, Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”, Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”, Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”, Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

Probably the closest to a guarantee for the entire night; Christoph Waltz as the despicable Colonel Hans Linda was arguably…ah, who am I kidding, it WAS the most memorable performance of 2009.  It would be shocking, even downright criminal, for him not to win the award.

FAVORITE – Christoph Waltz

DARK HORSE – N/A

PERSONAL – Christoph Waltz

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS = Penelope Cruz in “Nine”, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”, Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”, Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire”

Though not as equally frontloaded as the Supporting Actor category, it would still be surprising to not see Mo’Nique win for her haunting and frightening performance as an abusive mother in “Precious”.  However, Maggie Gyllenhaal could be a spoiler even though she’s been overshadowed by Jeff Bridges’ performance in the same respective film.

FAVORITE  - Mo’Nique

DARK HORSE – Maggie Gyllenhaal

PERSONAL – Mo’Nique

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE = “Coraline”, “Fantastic Mr. Fox”, “The Princess and the Frog”, “The Secret of Kells”, “Up”

Pixar has pretty much dominated this category since its incarnation, which is why it’s a testament to the competition that Up, also nominated for Best Picture, is not guaranteed to win.  However, the split votes between “Coraline” and the wonderful “Fantastic Mr. Fox” will likely hand the Oscar to “Up”.  And I love traditional animation, but what the heck’s “The Secret of Kells”?

FAVORITE – Up

DARK HORSE – Fantastic Mr. Fox

PERSONAL – Fantastic Mr. Fox

BEST ACTRESS – Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”, Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”, Carey Mulligan in “An Education”, Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious”, Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

It seems like this category will be a victim of a popularity contest as Sandra Bullock will likely win the award based entirely on media hype and her gigantic year at the box office.  The merits of her performance are debatable at best, especially in light of the effortless portrayal of Julia Child by Meryl Streep and the courageous and exposed turn by Gabourey Sidibe.

FAVORITE – Sandra Bullock

DARK HORSE – Meryl Streep

PERSONAL – Gabourey Sidibe

BEST ACTOR = Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”, George Clooney in “Up in the Air”, Colin Firth in “A Single Man”, Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”, Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”